United Nations warning: Food crisis may occur in April and May! Should we provide economic assistance or stimulate the economy

With the great success of China's epidemic, many people in China have started to lift stools and mock foreigners. Little did you know that after reading the joke, you may face the dilemma of having no rice to cook.

The reason is very simple. The countries where certain plagues are raging that you mock may have been providing a continuous supply of goods for your survival.

Today, the United Nations released a report stating that unless we take rapid action to protect the most vulnerable sectors, ensure the smooth flow of the global food supply chain, and alleviate the impact of the epidemic on the entire food system, we will face the risk of an imminent food crisis

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization predicts that a bad situation is expected to occur in April and May.

This report is by no means alarmist. The United Nations said that the global spread of COVID-19 has led to labor shortages and supply chain disruptions, which may affect food security in some countries and regions.

The report states that in the week ending March 14th, egg sales in the United States surged 44% year-on-year; Since early March, the wholesale price of eggs has increased by 180%. Wal Mart and other large chain retailers in the United States have recently begun to restrict the purchase of eggs and other products that have been panic bought, while Sabah, Malaysia's largest palm oil producer, has ordered the closure of palm plantations in three regions, because some employees have tested positive for COVID-19.

In addition, Vietnam has restricted rice exports, Russia has also stopped exporting finished grains, and Kazakhstan has suspended exports of wheat flour, buckwheat, sugar, sunflower oil, and certain vegetables.

Many Chinese people may say that we can be self-sufficient. It is estimated that there are definitely many people who think like this. Recently, the official also responded to this.

On the 28th, Wang Liaowei, a senior economist at the National Grain and Oil Information Center, stated in an interview with Xinhua News Agency reporters that China has achieved "basic self-sufficiency in grain and absolute safety in grain rations". The overall supply and demand of grain are relaxed, fully meeting the daily consumption needs of the people.

Since the official says so, there must be some truth.

As it is an official statement, we do not make any evaluations and only look at the data:

Let's start with rice. According to data from the Huajing Industrial Research Institute, since the end of the "adjustment and adjustment period" after China's accession to the WTO in 2004, China's grain trade has shifted from a trade surplus to a trade deficit, and the import volume of grain has gradually expanded. Since 2012, China has surpassed the United States as the world's largest importer of rice, with imports increasing from $1.13 billion to $1.25 billion in 2019.

Let's talk about soybeans. According to the database of the China Academy of Commerce and Industry, China's soybean imports increased from January to February 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, reaching 13.514 million tons.

Looking at last year's data again:

According to the database of the China Academy of Commerce and Industry, China's soybean import volume decreased in 2018, while there was a slight increase in China's soybean import volume in 2019; From January to December 2019, China's soybean import volume was 88.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%.

Looking at the import volume over the past five years.

Let's talk about corn. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in December 2019, China's corn import volume was 730000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 76%. The import amount was 1183.26 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78%, and the export volume was 8309 tons, a year-on-year increase of 391.8%. The export amount was 23.13 million yuan.

After talking about corn, let's finally talk about our main grain - wheat.

This news says that the March supply and demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Tuesday shows that China's wheat imports for 2019/20 are estimated to be 4 million tons, compared to an estimated 4 million tons in February.

Some people may say that the data in the United States is inaccurate. So, let's take a look at the data from the Ministry of Agriculture of China.

According to the official website of the Ministry of Agriculture, in 2019, the import and export volume of agricultural products in China reached $230.07 billion, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year. Among them, exports amounted to 79.1 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.7%; Import of 150.97 billion US dollars, an increase of 10.0%; The trade deficit was 71.87 billion US dollars, an increase of 26.5%.

1、 Cereals

Grain imports were 17.918 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, and the import value was 5.26 billion US dollars, a decrease of 11.5%. Export of 3.236 million tons, an increase of 26.8%; The export volume reached 1.28 billion US dollars, an increase of 15.6%; The net import was 14.682 million tons, a decrease of 18.2%.

Wheat: Imported 3.488 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. Export reached 313000 tons, an increase of 9.7%.

Corn: 4.793 million tons imported, a year-on-year increase of 36.0%. Exports of 26000 tons, an increase of 1.1 times.

Rice: 2.546 million tons imported, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%. Exports reached 2.748 million tons, an increase of 31.4%.

Barley: Imported 5.929 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.0%. Export 315.4 tons, a decrease of 95.5%.

Sorghum: Imported 832000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 77.2%. Export 41000 tons, a decrease of 15.3%.

In addition, DDGs imported 141000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%.

Cassava (mainly dry cassava) imported 2.838 million tons, a decrease of 40.9%.

2、 Cotton, sugar

Cotton: imported 1.937 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.0%; The import volume reached 3.6 billion US dollars, an increase of 12.6%. In addition, the alternative product of cotton, cotton yarn, imported 1.953 million tons, a decrease of 5.4%.

Sugar: 3.39 million tons imported, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%; The import volume reached 1.12 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.0%.

3、 Edible oilseeds, edible vegetable oils

Edible oilseeds: Imports of 93.308 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, and imports of 38.40 billion US dollars, a decrease of 8.0%; Exports of 1.16 million tons, a decrease of 3.0%, and exports of 1.69 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.4%; The trade deficit was 36.71 billion US dollars, a decrease of 8.3%. Among them, soybean imports reached 88.511 million tons, an increase of 0.6%; The import of rapeseed was 2.737 million tons, a decrease of 42.5%.

Edible vegetable oil: imported 11.527 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 42.5%, with an import value of 7.41 billion US dollars, an increase of 26.4%; Exports of 268000 tons, a decrease of 9.6%, and exports of 280 million US dollars, a decrease of 11.3%; The trade deficit reached 7.13 billion US dollars, an increase of 28.5%. Among them, palm oil imports reached 7.552 million tons, an increase of 41.8%; 1.615 million tons of vegetable oil imports, an increase of 24.6%; The import of sunflower oil and safflower oil reached 1.229 million tons, an increase of 74.8%; The import of soybean oil reached 826000 tons, an increase of 50.3%.

4、 Vegetables, fruits

Vegetables: Export of 15.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; Import of 960 million US dollars, an increase of 15.9%; The trade surplus was 14.54 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.9%.

Fruit: Export reached 7.45 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%; Import of 10.36 billion US dollars, an increase of 23.2%; The trade deficit reached 2.91 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.3 times.

5、 Animal and aquatic products

Animal products: Imports of 36.22 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 27.0%; Export of 6.50 billion US dollars, a decrease of 5.2%; The trade deficit was 29.72 billion US dollars, an increase of 37.2%. Among them, pork imports reached 1.994 million tons, an increase of 67.2%; The import of pig offal reached 1.132 million tons, an increase of 17.9%; 1.66 million tons of beef imports, an increase of 59.7%; The import of lamb reached 392000 tons, an increase of 23.0%; The import of milk powder reached 1.395 million tons, an increase of 21.0%.

Aquatic products: Exports reached 20.66 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%; Import of 18.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 25.6%; The trade surplus was 1.96 billion US dollars, a decrease of 74.1%.

After reading the above data, I hope you can understand the actual situation we are facing.

The food crisis cannot be underestimated. It's time to pay attention to various aspects such as local grain cultivation and production.

Recently, US Treasury Secretary Munuchin said he expects to release documents and instructions later today for small businesses to obtain virus relief loans. If small businesses run out of money, we will demand more money from Congress. We believe that the existing rescue plan will enable us to survive the next 8-12 weeks.

Economist Ma Guangyuan pointed out pointedly: How correct is the US rescue policy! Now is a bailout, not an economic stimulus!

It's not a lack of confidence in one's own country, but a hope that relevant parties can take it seriously and handle it calmly.

I hope we can work together and overcome difficulties together!